Let’s hope there’s still room for diplomacy

By Colin Mackerras

Immediately after the election on 21 May, new ALP Prime Minister Anthony Albanese began by travelling to Tokyo to take part in a meeting with the US, Japanese and Indian leaders with ramping up hostility against China one of the main items on the agenda. He responds coolly to a friendly message of congratulations from the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, demanding that the first step towards conciliation should come from China, namely lifting all trade sanctions against Australia. It doesn’t sound very positive for a reset in Australia-China relations. Yet, it is far too early to abandon hope. It’s still possible that the art of diplomacy, sorely lacking among Morrison, Dutton and their crew, still survives enough in the ALP to bring us to a better relationship.

Congratulations to other contributors, especially Stephen FitzGerald, who have taken up the issue of Australia's relations with China under the new Labor government. This piece adds my personal perspective.

Is China an enemy or friend, or neither? For decades, Australia and China very obviously regarded each other as friends. But by deliberately insulting China, Morrison appeared to change his mind, and his Defence Minister Peter Dutton, by talking about the “drums of war” and likening China to the Japanese in the 1930s, and even Hitler, very clearly cast China not only as a rival but as Australia’s main enemy. Already US President Joe Biden made it clear China was even more of an enemy than Russia. It was unfortunate that Albanese met with Biden within days of his inauguration. In the television images he seemed not so much respectful as fawning to Biden, reminding me strongly of how devotees treat the Dalai Lama or the Pope.

And what was Biden up to? In Japan he was telling reporters that the US would definitely intervene to save Taiwan if China used force to resume Chinese sovereignty. It may sound reasonable, but the U.S., Australia, Japan, India, numerous other countries and the United Nations agree that Taiwan is part of China, that there is only one China and the government in Beijing is the sole legal government of the country. He was immediately corrected by White House officials, who pointed out that the U.S. still had a policy of strategic ambiguity on this subject. Of course, Biden did not mind tweaking China’s nose. Fortunately, Albanese kept to the Australian policy of recognition of one China, including Taiwan, and Beijing as the sole legal government of the country.

Just afterwards, we find China framed in hostile terms again. New Treasurer Jim Chalmers says China has to lift restrictions on trade before we can discuss balancing relations. Morrison had said China had to restore communication before he would meet the Ambassador. Now they've done that by congratulating the new prime minister. So the bars on discussing improvements on relations with China have been raised just when Albanese is making his international debut as prime minister and intensifying the subordination of relations with the U.S.

And again, Penny Wong is out in Fiji trying to strengthen relations with that country. I'm not criticizing that, and commend her emphasis on helping Fiji over climate change. As it happened, probably by coincidence, China's Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi was making a major tour of eight Pacific countries hoping to initiate a major deal covering all of them that would envisage more trade, cultural and other exchanges, security and other factors. There's no talk, however, of military bases.

This does show Australia and the Western countries have been laggard in the Pacific, but I'd add two points. One is that Penny Wong has been exercising some good diplomacy, which I hope she extends to China later. The other is that China is perfectly entitled to try and initiate a wide agreement with these eight countries. After all, the U.S. has been trying to strengthen its multilateral frameworks against China, and China's response seems more peaceful and helpful than the U.S. approach, which is aimed specifically at hindering China's rise.

And on 26 May, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a major speech on China policy. What he said wasn't especially new, but it did make clear that the U.S. was not about to soften its approach to China and still regarded it as rival, even enemy. Xi Jinping still talks of cooperation, Biden of competition. And it's true that up to now the War in Ukraine has strengthened NATO and the West in its ideological vision that government systems are not equal, as China's new Ambassador to Australia suggested. No, democracy is not only the best system, but the only acceptable one.

But maybe Xi has a point in wanting cooperation. The world hasn't done well lately, and the war in Ukaine has made things worse. Figures from 2020 show that, in terms of proportion between national debt and gross domestic product, the U.S. is now 137 per cent, in other words the U.S. owes far more than it produces or earns (China's figure is 66.8 per cent). I can't see how the U.S. can go on printing money for ever. One point where I do agree with Biden is on the horror he shows for how destructive the gun culture in the U.S. I think the Chinese have a point when they wonder if American society and economy are really such a model for the world. And I disagree very strongly with the suggestion that we should be tantamount to an American colony while shunning China.

So is there still hope that Australia under Albanese can rebalance its relations with China. Certainly, it is too early to give up. Senator Wong has shown herself a better diplomat than her predecessor Marise Payne. She didn't go out of her way to offend China in her Fiji visit, but stuck to the useful climate change script. Sun Wanning has pointed out that in several electorates with large Chinese-speaking populations, the swing to the ALP in the election was larger than elsewhere and due, at least in part, to the anti-China hostility, which had the effect of making many Chinese feel like the enemy.

Meanwhile, developments in Western Australia are of interest regarding China. In the seat of Tangney, voters of Chinese heritage swung against the Coalition probably due to Dutton’s baiting of China. Premier Mark McGowan was strong in his condemnation of Dutton and his policies on China. “He’s an extremist and I don’t think he fits with modern Australia at all”, he commented two days after the election.” He also urged a reset of relations with China. Hear, Hear, to that!!

So there definitely are forces within the Labor Party that are pressing for a reset of relations. On the basis of Albanese’s and Wong’s performance so far, I don’t think this is going to be immediate. But the Liberals seem to have forgotten about diplomacy altogether and I think Premier McGowan is spot on in his castigation of Peter Dutton’s character and abilities. His assuming leadership of the Liberal Party, with the possibility of becoming prime minister some day, won’t help matters.

Still, I haven’t given up hope that things will improve, admittedly from a low base! The big issue remains whether China is friend or enemy. I agree with McGowan’s implication that it’s “crazy” to demonize it as enemy. It is clearly in Australia’s national interest to try to reset relations and to pick up on several olive branches China has sent the new government.

COLIN MACKERRAS, AO, FAHA is Professor Emeritus at Griffith University, Queensland. He has visited and worked in China many times. He is a specialist on Chinese history, theatre, minority nationalities, Western images of China and Australia-China relations and has written widely on all topics. His many books include Western Perspectives on the People's Republic of China, Politics, Economy and Society, World Scientific Publishing, Singapore, 2015.